If, as expected, Fernando Torres is finally dropped tonight, Spain will be forced to crowd the midfield and fit a lot of talented central midfielders into a system that prevents them tripping over each others’ toes. There have many smooth, round pegs, but some must quickly adapt to square holes if Spain are to overcome Germany’s balanced side.
While Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets have sat deep in a 4-4-2 it has forced Xavi, their best passer of a ball, to play further up the pitch (out of place) in a position that requires the pace and width he doesn’t offer. When they have switched to a 4-3-3 with Xavi moving into central midfield, David Villa has played on the left leaving the out-of-sorts Fernando Torres as the (so far rather blunt) point of attack. If Cesc Fabregas is the man to come in, after impressing in his cameo against Paraguay, where does he fit?
Another problem is that of Spain’s starting midfield four so far only Andres Iniesta has the necessary attributes to beat a man. Busquets, Xavi and Alonso are excellent passers of the ball but they lack the pace or dribbling skills get in behind defences, as shown by the fact that Switzerland managed to squeeze them out in their opening fixture despite being without the ball for long periods.
Germany, meanwhile, have a player for each position of their finely oiled 4-2-3-1 system. Sami Khedira sits, Bastian Schweinsteiger is, well, everywhere at once it seems, while Mesut Ozil has the creativity to play behind the front three, the ability to beat a man and a sharp eye for goal, as demonstrated with a great strike against Ghana. Lucas Podolski offers genuine width on the left, Miroslav Klose is happy to sit on the last man and usually they have Thomas Muller’s energy down the right.
But Muller isn’t playing, and herein lies Germany’s weakness in tonight’s game: an unfamiliar face in a settled starting eleven. It is here where Joachim Low will earn his corn. The choices? Another gamble on the youth policy that has worked so well so far and the selection of the talented but inexperienced young Bayern Munich midfielder Toni Kroos, or the more experienced Piotr Trochowski, who is the more natural winger.
I personally would pick Kroos. He has already been earmarked for the number 10 shirt at Bayern Munich and is held in higher regard than Muller by many within the club. Despite his 20 years he has already made an impact at Munich and on loan at Leverkusen. During his debut for Munich, coming off the bench for the last 18 minutes, he provided two assists. On his UEFA cup debut he came on for nine minutes, made one and scored with the last kick of the game. Oh, and those three assists were all for a certain Mr Klose.
Put simply both teams needs to make changes for tonight’s game, and these decisions may well determine who plays the Netherlands in Johannesburg on Sunday. Germany’s change is forced because of Muller’s two yellow cards, whereas Torres’ form means Vicente del Bosque’s hand is forced for a different reason. If Spain can find a balance, they have the players to beat Germany, whose equilibrium depends on how well their new right winger adapts.
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