...Brazil’s transatlantic balance will win the World Cup

Yesterday Brazil played like two teams fused together; a physical, European-style rearguard of six formed a solid base from which their samba stars took Chile apart. Crucially (England, France and Italy take note), every man knew his role in a clearly defined system of play.

With England’s loose 4-4-2 and the hastily assembled 4-3-3 formations of Il Azzurri and Les Bleus, the players looked like they knew their starting shape but became amorphous as play became stretched. England in particular seemed to have no set style of play, although I’m sure this was not for lack of trying on behalf of Fabio Capello.

Despite the result yesterday Chile looked settled in a complex 3-3-1-3 system. Can you imagine the carnage if England were asked to play in this manner?! South American teams play 18 games in qualifying as opposed to 10 in Europe and this additional exposure to team-mates and tactics seems to be paying dividends in South Africa. Most people expected Brazil and Argentina to walk through the group stages but did they expect all three of Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay to progress?

Many of Brazil’s players made multiple transatlantic trips representing club and country during the qualifying campaign. As a result their play seems to be stuck half-way between Europe and South America. In footballing terms this is no bad place to be. Lucio and Maicon, for instance, will no doubt have been helped by the strict tactical discipline of Jose Mourinho, who will have taught them when and how to use their obvious flair when in possession, and how to press opponents whilst keeping the shape when without; raw talent refined by a cultured approach.

In attacking terms Brazil have the advantage of an abundance of technique and creativity, but they are also told to play in a certain way to make the most out it: Short, accurate passes on the deck combined with intelligent movement off the ball. The European teams mentioned above, now a mere footnote in the story of the 2010 World Cup, didn’t seem to have a defined style of play; they were neither patient nor exclusively direct. Unfortunately the ‘mix it up’ philosophy just doesn’t cut it in the knock-out stages of the World Cup.

Spain also play to their technical prowess, and are joint favourites with Brazil for good reason. In my opinion, however, Brazil will win it for three reasons. Firstly Fernando Torres is clearly not at his peak in a physical or a mental sense. David Villa is perhaps the best striker in the world at the moment but he needs Torres to come to life if Spain are to beat Brazil.

Secondly, Brazil as a team and as a nation ooze confidence and feel they have a right to win their sixth World Cup. Would Spanish fans, who have never tasted such a victory, feel comfortable taking massive World Cup replica trophies into tonight’s game with Portugal? Germany showed what confidence can do against a team who lack it, and Spain will feel pressure from a tense nation just as England did. I’m not saying Spain lack confidence, merely that Brazil have more of it.

The third reason is that bond of European brawn and South American beauty. Spain have a physical back-line but their ‘defensive’ midfielders are more creators than destroyers whereas Brazil’s are happy to sit. Italy won the World Cup because of their defence in 2006, and although I never thought it would be this way, I think Brazil will win it in 2010 for the same reason.

...England’s chronic self-doubt proves terminal

However many different Englishmen pull on the three lions at major competitions it seems they will always be united by one thing: a fear of failure. The nation may be stuck in a vicious circle. The more we talk of our players’ inability to recreate their club form on the international stage, the more they believe it themselves.

The match commentators yesterday suggested that England would take only one of the German eleven in exchange for one of our own players. While I personally think it would be closer to six (Neuer, Lahm, Ozil, Klose, Schweinsteiger, Podolski), the fact remains that England have players who would walk into the German side. Frank Lampard, for instance, has outplayed Michael Ballack ever since Germany’s inspirational captain arrived at Stamford Bridge. Klose doesn’t even start for his club. Pulling on the England shirt, however, instantly puts doubt in the mind of even the most seasoned professional.

What is worse is that the opposition know it. It is obvious. Germany smelt blood from the men in red; they were relieved by England’s mental self-oppression. People talk of experience being the key in big games, but it was England’s more experienced players whose mindset was stifled, rather than liberated by past exploits yesterday. The expectations were high and they knew it. Meanwhile the 20-year-old Thomas Müller played without fear and finished with two goals and an assist.

Many critics blame unrealistic expectations in the English media. The Metro this morning, for instance, talked of the end of a ‘golden generation’. It is hard to rationalise the root of this phrase as this group of England players have not once beat decent opposition in the knockout phase of a major tournament.

Most of these losses have come down to penalties; essentially a mind game. Does anyone really believe that if England had taken Germany to spot-kicks that the outcome would have been any different to the one we are so used to: waiting to see which unlucky soul will have but a Pizza Hut advertising contract as consolation for his failure for the rest of his life?

Of course not. Because like the match yesterday, the game would be up even before it had begun. In the past we have let the heart rule the head when choosing penalty takers such is the doubt coursing through the veins of many players who are more than capable of scoring from 12 yards. A brief list of players who have missed penalties for us in major tournaments in the last 14 years: Jamie Carragher, Gareth Southgate, Paul Ince, David Batty. Men with the heart to take a penalty, but not the head, nor the feet for that matter.

For this reason I do not expect to see England lift a World Cup for as long as I live. Pessimistic? Admittedly. An overreaction? Maybe, but unfortunately this scathing conclusion is borne more from cold Müller-esque reason than it is from the self-doubt and resulting hot-headed panic seen in the eyes of the England team yesterday.

...Lippi shows form is temporary, Capello proves class is permanent

Marcello Lippi’s decision to choose players who impressed in Serie A this season rather than those with proven international pedigree cost Italy a place in the knockout phase. Meanwhile Fabio Capello has deserted the policy of only picking players who are on form for their club teams, and as a result his England side are into the last 16.

Injuries to key players Gianluigi Buffon and Andrea Pirlo were beyond Lippi’s control, but other world-class players were missing because of Lippi’s policy to pick on current form rather than past glory. What Italy would have done for the creativity of Sampdoria’s maverick forward Antonio Cassano when chasing the game against a determined Slovakian defence. What they would have done for the leadership and experience of Francesco Totti.

If Capello had stuck with the policy of selecting on form alone that he employed at the beginning of his reign as England manager it would have been Darren Bent, with 24 goals in 38 matches for Sunderland last season, and not Jermain Defoe, who lost his goal-scoring touch during the latter part of the campaign with Tottenham, who would have met James Milner’s cross on Wednesday. As it happened Defoe showed class under pressure to bag the winner.

Had the golden chance that Simone Pepe scuffed wide with his right foot in the dying seconds yesterday fallen to an experienced forward, he would probably have had the composure to score, hit the target or at least to use his left as the chance required.

Antonio Di Natale may have been Serie A’s top scorer last season, but he was disappointing when given the chance at Euro 2008 and managed only one tap-in during his three matches in South Africa. Alberto Gilardinho scored 34 in 68 for Fiorentina last season but has been consistently inconsistent for Italy in the past, an assessment he backed up with his performances at this World Cup, leading to his demotion to the bench.

So, who was left out? As well as Totti and Cassano Lippi could also have called up Giuseppe Rossi, who would almost certainly have scored the chance that Pepe missed and showed his class on the international stage by scoring 11 in 22 for the Italy under 21s, or even Alessandro Del Piero, who continues to belie his 35 years and could have made a huge impact from the bench.

The advantage of class over form and the faults in Lippi’s tactics were demonstrated in Italy’s first game, against Paraguay. With his team again trailing to supposedly inferior opposition, Lippi withdrew the ineffective Claudio Marchisio, brought on Mauro Camoranesi and switched from 4-3-3 to 4-4-2. Italy improved immediately as the 34-year-old began to pull the strings, scored within five minutes of his introduction, and almost managed to win all three points. In the next game, against New Zealand, Lippi inexplicably reinstated Marchisio and the 4-3-3. Again Italy failed to beat a ‘lesser’ team.

Lippi had a veritable wealth of talent at his disposal compared to his compatriot Capello. As a World Cup winner in 2006, he really should have known better than to choose players based on domestic form alone. He will now retire as Italy manager rueing what could have been.

...forget Ronaldo and Messi, Landon Donovan is the player of the tournament so far

It just had to be Landon Donovan that scored the dramatic last-gasp winner against Algeria last night. The USA’s talisman has proved to be the difference between a workmanlike side able to match decent opposition over 90 minutes, and one that is able to surpass them. Last night he was the difference between an early exit from the World Cup and a passport to the last sixteen as the undefeated USA went through as winners of Group C.

Without Donovan, the USA are at best an average side. The fact that they rely so heavily on their ’star’ striker Jozy Altidore, a man who scored just once in 28 games on loan at Hull City last year, speaks volumes of the lack of quality running through the squad. Donovan is the only player with genuine class, and so his team rely on him to perform to his potential when it matters. While he was criticised for going missing in Germany four years ago, he has put that right in South Africa.

One thing his less talented team-mates possess in abundance is spirit. As Bill Clinton, making a bizarre appearance for a post-match interview yesterday, said, “all great contests in life are head games”. However, mental grit can only get you so far at the highest level. New Zealand, under the leadership of their captain Ryan Nelson, have been able to match Slovakia and Italy so far but lack a quality player capable of finishing the job, and may well be found out by Paraguay this afternoon.

While the USA look to Donovan, other teams of a similar level rely on their sole star player to provide the goods. That the South African team placed their hands on the corn-rows of Steven Pienaar during a prayer before the tournament’s opening game showed how much they lean on the Everton midfielder. Unfortunately for the host nation Pienaar had a quiet World Cup and his team were knocked out despite a valiant victory against France in what proved to be their last game.

Similarly Australia look to Pienaar’s Everton team-mate, Tim Cahill, to provide goals and inspiration. When he was shown a red card in the opening game it was obvious they would struggle. Their win over Serbia last night (Cahill scored the opener) also came too late.
It is fitting, then, that Donovan chose Everton as the club to prove himself in European football with. His short spell on loan there showed just how far he has come on as a player after a fruitless four-year spell at Bayer Leverkusen during which he made just seven first-team appearances and another loan at Bayern Munich after which the Bavarian Club declined an option to extend his visit.

At Everton, though, Donovan was a revelation. David Moyes had little to lose by bringing him in, but he could not have expected the Californian to adapt to the pace of the Premier League so quickly after playing in the US Major League. Consolidating a place on the right of a five-man midfield containing both Pienaar and Cahill, he scored two goals in thirteen games, took set-pieces for the club and was voted as Player of the Month for January.

The spell at Everton may have played a major part in Donovan’s performances in South Africa. During his visit he was involved in several tight but mostly successful matches as his adopted team enjoyed a rich vein of form that included home wins against Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City and a hard-fought draw at Arsenal. Donovan has had to compete with at least the same level of intensity and with the added pressure of the expectancy of a nation on his shoulders when playing in the blue of the USA at the World Cup.

While the big names continue to struggle for their respective nations as documented here earlier this week, the players around them have the quality to take the carry them through. Donovan alone must continue to carry his team as they enter the business end of the competition. When it has counted so far he has provided the substance that his more illustrious peers have not. Without his two goals in three games the USA would be sat on a flight home now rather than preparing for their match against Ghana on Saturday. For this reason Landon Donovan is my man of the tournament so far.

...Otto Rehhegal's tactics a Greek tragedy

If Otto Rehhegal does not resign he must surely be sacked by the Greek FA. Needing a win, or at the very least a result against Argentina, he played scandalously negative tactics and Greece were eliminated from the World Cup without so much as a whimper of protest.

Here was a team condemned to their fate, playing damage limitation to Argentina rather than trying to launch the improbable assault that was their only hope of an escape route from group B. Admittedly the odds were stacked against Greece but, as the old adage goes it is better to try and fail than not to try at all.

Knowing that his team needed to score one if not two goals, Greece still played with ten men behind the ball. Their one forward – Georgios Samaras – was faced with the unenviable task of having to win the game on his own against Argentinean defenders fresh from their unemployment. The cameras flitted to Rehhegal with increasing frequency as the minutes ticked by, finding the vacant face of a man who looked like he had forgotten that he alone could change this, that he had the weight of a proud nation on his shoulders.

After the first abject display by his side in this tournament, a 2-0 loss to South Korea, Rehhegal blamed a lack of pace in his side for his static tactics. In that case why did not start with the youthful pace and energy of Panathinaikos’ highly-rated winger Sotiris Ninis, and look to get in behind the suspect Argentinean back line rather than forcing Samaras to toil alone, feeding off scraps with his back to goal?

Perhaps Rehhegal found the ‘inspiration’ for his negative tactics in three places. First and most obviously, Argentina have much better players than Greece. But they were already through and had made seven changes, which included playing two defenders (Nicolás Otamendi and Clemente Juan Rodríguez) who were making their World Cup debuts.

He might also have seen the way Inter Milan beat Barcelona and then Bayern Munich whilst not having possession for long periods. The difference here is that Wesley Sneijder was in constant support of the lone striker and Inter also had pace on the flanks to break with when their opponents eventually slipped up.

Another factor in his decision-making process may have been watching the way North Korea were so soundly beaten by Portugal after trying to make a game of it and pushing for a goal, when they had enjoyed more success when frustrating Brazil with Rehhegal-esque tactics. That said they also lost to Brazil, albeit by one goal rather than seven.

Surely Greece fans would have preferred to have gone out fighting. Getting a drubbing from Messi and co. would not have made for pleasurable viewing, but would surely have been preferable to merely giving in to the inevitable.

When Rehhegal’s Greece won Euro 2004 against all odds, their victory was built on belief and team spirit. True, their tactics were negative then, but then they rarely went behind and so did not face the same test as the team did last night. The best managers have a strong plan B, but it seemed as if the German manager did not have one at all.

Fans do not travel thousands of miles, dress like idiots and put up with the sound of vuvuzelas droning in their ears to see their team give up without a fight. Another adage, this time from General Khan, says “He who attacks must vanquish. He who defends must merely survive.” Needing points last night, survival was not enough for Greece. Rehhagel, knowing this from the start yet failing to act accordingly, saw his side vanquished. Like any honourable General, he must now fall on his sword.

...apart from goals North Korea give little away during their brief stay in South Africa

North Korea had never shown a match played by their national football team on foreign soil until yesterday. While this is positive for a nation sheltered under the tyrannical rule of Kim Young-Il, the downside was that they were battered 7-0 by Portugal. Mr Young-Il must hope, perversely, that his people have seen enough and that he can slam his iron curtain shut once more.

With the North Koreans on their way home following two losses, the chances of we, the outside world, gaining any fresh knowledge of this secretive nation are also drawing to a close. After a tetchy first press conference in which manager Kim Jong-Hun refused to be recognised as North Korea (the official title is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) being the team’s last, we do not have much to go on.

We know much of their only other appearance in a World Cup finals tournament, in England in 1966. Although 44 years have passed since then the situation was much the same then as it is now. The nation was shrowded in mystery and subsequently aroused suspicions worldwide. They were nearly denied visas by the English authorities, who eventually backed down because they feared the tournament may be taken off their hands.

They were, however, involved in two matches that are still being talked about to this day. Firstly they beat Italy (who even by then had won the tournament twice) 1-0 to gain a place in the quarter-finals, which was the last time they played Portugal before yesterday. Having led by three goals after half an hour they then conceded five, four of which were scored by Benfica’s Mercurial striker Eusebio.

En route to the current World Cup, in South Africa, DPRK played their Southern neighbours over two legs. Unsurprisingly both encounters were full of controversy. The first leg was moved from North Korea to neutral China after the DPRK refused to play the anthem or fly the flag of South Korea. South Korea then won their home fixture, before which many the DPR team came down with food poisoning. The DPRK blamed South Korean secret services and described the alleged act as “moves towards confrontation”.

If this seems a little excessive the verdict of a defector of the regime (interviewed by the BBC in Seoul, South Korea) to his former country’s performance yesterday reads like an excerpt from George Orwell’s iconic novel 1984 and says much about the attitude of this country and their leader. “The result will be blamed on their weak minds," he said, “I'm sure the players will have to go though extreme re-education and self-criticism.”

Like the Big Brother of 1984, Kim Young-Il does not take kindly to criticism. Maybe this is why the match was shown 12 hours later than when it actually took place, so any protest could be cleverly edited out. If this was the case, the editors were not able to mask the seven easy goals conceded to six different Portugal players. The humble Jong-Hun (who incidentally also coaches the DPRK Army team) dutifully took responsibility, blaming his adventurous tactics for the holes in the defence that were so ruthlessly exposed.

However, maybe the players felt the pressure of millions of eyes watching them at home; of representing their proud nation at the World Cup in front of their comrades. The team managed to limit five-time World Cup winners Brazil to a just a one goal victory in their first fixture, so it seems likely that there was an outside factor affecting the performance against Portugal. If that was the case then maybe this is that last the people of North Korea will get to see of their national team abroad. On yesterday’s showing, perhaps that is a good thing.

...Lads

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